Vaata arhiivi neljapäev, 3 aprill 2003

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Apr 03 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 093 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 03 Apr 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels. A significant C-class flare from Region 324 (S11W35) occurred at 1027 UTC. This region has rapidly increased in both size and complexity over the last 24 hours. New Regions 329 (N01E18) and 330 (N07E74) were numbered today. No other significant activity occurred.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 324 (S11W35) and 321 (N08W54) are sufficiently complex and should continue to be for the next three days.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled levels. The high speed stream which began on 30 March is subsiding, but continued instability in the interplanetary magnetic field is maintaining our unsettled activity levels. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of active for the next two days due to the subsiding high speed stream. By day three, the solar wind will increase again, and combined with the potential for southward Bz, is likely to cause an increase to unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storming.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 04 Aprkuni 06 Apr
Klass M45%45%35%
Klass X10%10%05%
Prooton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       03 Apr 156
  Prognoositud   04 Apr-06 Apr  155/155/150
  90 päeva keskmine        03 Apr 135
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 02 Apr  011/020
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 03 Apr  015/013
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  010/010-010/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 04 Apr kuni 06 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%25%25%
Väike torm10%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%40%40%
Väike torm15%20%20%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.

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