Vaata reede, 7 märts 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Mar 07 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 066 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Mar 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z

Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 296 (N13W18), a relatively large and moderately complex region, has been dormant for the duration of its transit on the visible disk. This region was in a slow decay phase over the past few days, but still shows some complexity. Region 301 (N22W05) though small, is in a slow growth phase, and exhibited considerable plage fluctuations and minor surging throughout the period. Newly numbered Region 306 (N05E76) rotated into view this period; a relatively large sunspot group is evident, but limb proximity hinders a more thorough analysis. This region was the likely source of a large CME observed off the NE limb early on 6 March. Three other new sunspot groups emerged today and were numbered as 303 (S18W47), 304 (S13W16), and 305 (S22E27).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low. Regions 296, 301, and 306 all have potential for C-class flares. There is a slight chance for an M-class flare from Regions 296 and 306.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated active periods were observed during local nighttime hours at all latitudes. The high speed coronal hole stream responsible for the disturbed periods over the past few days has gradually declined to near normal levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible at mostly higher latitudes.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Markuni 10 Mar
Klass M15%20%20%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       07 Mar 150
  Prognoositud   08 Mar-10 Mar  155/160/160
  90 päeva keskmine        07 Mar 142
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Mar  015/025
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 07 Mar  012/012
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  010/012-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Mar kuni 10 Mar
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%20%20%
Väike torm05%01%01%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%25%25%
Väike torm05%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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