Vaata kolmapäev, 5 märts 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Mar 05 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 064 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 05 Mar 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several B-class subflares were
observed mostly from Regions 296 (N11E08), 301 (N22E22), and 302
(N19E50). Region 296 remains the largest sunspot group on the
visible disk with near 550 millionths of white light areal coverage.
Though this region has shown some decay in coverage, it is the
likely source of several weak to moderate radio bursts, including a
460 sfu tenflare from a B6/Sf flare at 05/0301Z. No significant
changes were observed in the remaining active regions.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Isolated C-class flares are possible with a chance of an M-class
flare from Region 296.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Mostly unsettled
conditions prevailed early in the period in response to a waning
high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind data indicated another
high speed stream onset at around 1300Z, preceded by a weak
co-rotating interaction region. Solar wind speed ranged from 500 -
550 km/s for the latter half of the period and isolated active
periods were observed at all latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active periods.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 06 Markuni 08 Mar
| Klass M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 05 Mar 149 Prognoositud 06 Mar-08 Mar 150/145/145 90 päeva keskmine 05 Mar 142
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 04 Mar 015/026 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 05 Mar 015/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 012/015-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 06 Mar kuni 08 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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