Vaata esmaspäev, 2 detsember 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Dec 02 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 336 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 02 Dec 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 208 (N10E35) produced
the largest event of the period, a C9/Sf flare at 02/1927 UTC. This
region has undergone minor growth in size and spot count and shown
an increase in magnetic complexity over the past 24 hours. Region
207 (S20E06) remains the largest region on the visible disk, and
produced a C1/Sf flare at 02/2033 UTC. An impressive partial-halo
CME was visible over the northwest limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
starting at about 02/1750 UTC, but a lack in corresponding
observations of notable x-ray enhancement or optical flare activity
suggests a likely backside source for this event. Two new regions
were numbered today: Region 211 (S08E04) and Region 212 (N13E75).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with a slight chance for moderate flare activity
during the next three days. Region 208 appears to be the most
likely source for possible M-class activity during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit again reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely
to persist at high levels for the next one to three days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 03 Deckuni 05 Dec
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 02 Dec 146 Prognoositud 03 Dec-05 Dec 155/160/175 90 päeva keskmine 02 Dec 169
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 01 Dec 016/016 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 02 Dec 010/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 012/015-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 03 Dec kuni 05 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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