Vaata kolmapäev, 13 november 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Nov 13 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 317 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 Nov 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z Solar activity fell to low levels for the period. The
largest event was a long duration C3.2 x-ray enhancement, observed
during 13/0341-0552 UTC without a correlated optical report. Some
episodes of lesser C-class flare activity were produced by Region
191 (S18E12) later in the period. This region has continued to
exhibit a trend of increasing size and spot count and moderate
magnetic complexity. Region 180 (S11W94) produced some bright loops
visible in H-alpha early in the period, but was mostly quiescent as
it transited the west limb today. New Regions 194 (S16E43) and 195
(S15E78) were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days. Region 191 appears to be a
likely source of M-class activity for the forecast period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled, with some isolated
quiet and active periods.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly unsettled through day one of the forecast
period. A trend toward more active conditions, with isolated minor
storm conditions possible, is expected by day three of the forecast
period due to the anticipated onset of coronal hole high speed
stream effects.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Novkuni 16 Nov
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 Nov 182 Prognoositud 14 Nov-16 Nov 175/175/175 90 päeva keskmine 13 Nov 178
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 Nov 009/014 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 13 Nov 011/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 010/012-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 Nov kuni 16 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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