Vaata laupäev, 9 november 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Nov 09 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 313 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 Nov 2002 ::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 180 (S10W41)
produced an M4/2B flare at 09/1323 UTC. The flare was accompanied by
type II/IV radio sweeps, a 760 sfu burst at 2695 MHz, and an
apparent earth-directed CME. Otherwise only C-class flares occurred,
mostly in Region 180 but also from Region 191 (S17E63).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 180 is the most likely source of energetic
flares with a slight chance of M-level activity in 191.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The field became
somewhat disturbed after 09/1800 UTC in response to a shock observed
in the solar wind at about 09/1755 UTC. Further analysis of the
solar wind data since 09/2100 UTC suggests that this structure is
CME material rather than related to a high-speed stream as suggested
in the original filing of this report. A greater than 10 MeV proton
event began at 09/1920 UTC, following the M4 flare mentioned in Part
IA, and remains in progress. The current greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is about 30 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was moderate to high.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24-36 hours. Active
conditions are expected late on 11 November in response to the
M4/CME which occurred today. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Novkuni 12 Nov
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 90% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 09 Nov 191 Prognoositud 10 Nov-12 Nov 185/180/180 90 päeva keskmine 09 Nov 178
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 Nov 003/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 09 Nov 008/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 010/012-015/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 Nov kuni 12 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
<< Mine igapäevase ülevaate lehele
Viimane uudis
laupäev, 23 märts 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
kolmapäev, 20 märts 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
neljapäev, 22 veebruar 2024
X6.3 solar flare
Viimane foorumi postitus
Unspecified geomagnetic activity 935Growth of Cycle 25 424GONG Farside Images added to the SWL site? 5Changelog/Featurelog 152Imagery from Total Solar Eclipse 08/04/2024 5
Veel teemasidToeta SpaceWeatherLive.com-i!
Paljud inimesed külastavad SpaceWeatherLive lehte selleks, et jälgida, mis toimub Päikesel või, kas on oodata virmalisi. Suurema liiklusega on serveri koormus ning maksumus kõrgem. Kui sulle meeldib see, mida me sinu heaks teeme, siis saad sa sellele ka ise natukene kaasa aidata, annetades selle lehe käigus hoidmise ja arendamise heaks. Ette tänades SpeaceWeatherLive meeskond!
Fakte kosmose ilmast
| Viimane X-loide | 28/03/2024 | X1.1 |
| Viimane M-loide | 19/04/2024 | M1.0 |
| Viimane geomagnetiline torm | 16/04/2024 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Plekivabasid päevi | |
|---|---|
| Viimane päikese plekivaba päev | 08/06/2022 |
| Kuu keskmine päikeseplekkide arv | |
|---|---|
| märts 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |