Vaata kolmapäev, 6 november 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 310 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 Nov 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 177 (N17W22) produced the largest event of the period - a C9/Sf flare at 05/2201Z. This region has shown some decay and has been relatively quiet since producing the C9 flare. Region 180 (S10W01) continues to develop both in size and complexity. It now exhibits one, maybe two, delta configurations in a spot group exceeding 550 millionths of areal coverage. Several C-class flare were observed in this region, the largest being a C7/Sf at 0532Z. An associated Type II sweep (405 km/s) and CME were also observed, but the CME did not appear to be earthward directed. Three new regions were numbered today, and two of them - Region 187 (N07E07) and 188 (N11E22) produced minor C-class flares late in the period. Region 189 (N12E56) was also numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 180 will likely produce C and M-class activity. Region 177 has potential for a small M-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with minor storm periods at high latitudes. High speed coronal hole effects with persistent southward Bz are causing the disturbance. There are also indications of a weak transient passage late in the period, which is enhancing this disturbance. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active periods with occasional minor, or even major storm periods at high latitudes.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 Novkuni 09 Nov
Klass M55%55%55%
Klass X10%10%10%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       06 Nov 185
  Prognoositud   07 Nov-09 Nov  190/190/190
  90 päeva keskmine        06 Nov 177
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 05 Nov  015/019
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  015/017
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  012/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 Nov kuni 09 Nov
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%25%20%
Väike torm20%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm11%06%02%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne50%35%25%
Väike torm30%20%10%
Suur-tõsine torm10%05%05%

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