Vaata arhiivi esmaspäev, 14 oktoober 2002

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Oct 14 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 287 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 14 Oct 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate. A long-duration M2/Sf event occurred early in the period peaking at 14/0010 UTC, from bright plage just east of the large spot in Region 159 (S11E57). This event was accompanied by a large CME evident in SOHO/LASCO imagery, with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of about 850 km/s. Region 159 also produced a C4/Sf event at 14/0945 UTC. A Type-II radio sweep of estimated velocity 743 km/s was observed at 14/1429 UTC, in association with a small impulsive C1 flare, and followed shortly thereafter by a very long-lived enhancement in x-ray flux that began at about 14/1520 UTC, and remained in progress at the end of the period. Available H-alpha imagery revealed no apparent source for this activity, and SOHO EIT and LASCO data were mostly unavailable for the period. The lack of subsequent particle enhancement from this potential CME event seems to suggest an east-limb source for this activity. New Region 160 (S20E54) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. An extended interval of active conditions, with an isolated period of major storming at high latitudes, appeared to occur primarily due to a sustained strong southward orientation of Bz, and a slow increase in solar wind speed. Other solar wind data suggest an overall pattern of a CIR evolving toward to a weak high speed stream pattern near the end of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active for the early part of the forecast period, with mostly quiet to unsettled conditions by the end of day one and into day two. By day three, some CME passage effects may occur in response to the solar activity described above, and may cause isolated active or minor storm conditions by the end of the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 15 Octkuni 17 Oct
Klass M30%30%30%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       14 Oct 181
  Prognoositud   15 Oct-17 Oct  175/175/165
  90 päeva keskmine        14 Oct 182
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 13 Oct  006/010
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 14 Oct  017/026
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  015/018-012/012-015/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 15 Oct kuni 17 Oct
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%20%30%
Väike torm05%05%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%25%35%
Väike torm10%05%15%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%05%

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