Vaata reede, 11 oktoober 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Oct 11 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 284 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 Oct 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. The most interesting event of
the period was a long-duration C3/Sf event at 11/1719 UTC, with an
associated bright prominence on the west limb near S15. The
presumed source is Region 143 (S16, L=017), which had rotated beyond
the west limb early in the period. Region 139 (N09W46) was a source
of some lesser C-class activity during the period, and remains the
largest sunspot group on the visible disk, with moderate but stable
complexity in its delta magnetic configuration. Region 149 (N15E48)
has exhibited some growth and produced two C-class flares during the
period. Two new regions emerged on the disk and were numbered
today: 155 (S09W53) and 156 (N09E10).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 139 and 149 are both potential sources of
isolated moderate flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels but
remained below event threshold.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 Octkuni 14 Oct
| Klass M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 Oct 179 Prognoositud 12 Oct-14 Oct 180/185/180 90 päeva keskmine 11 Oct 181
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 10 Oct 010/023 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 11 Oct 008/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 010/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 Oct kuni 14 Oct
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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