Vaata reede, 20 september 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Sep 20 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 263 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 20 Sep 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. New Region 126 (S24E62) produced two M-class flares this period. Both were M1/Sf flares, at 20/0512Z and 0928Z, and both were accompanied by minor centimetric bursts. Limb proximity makes it too difficult to accurately assess Region 126's complexity, but initial measurements indicate a D type group with 200 millionths of white light areal coverage. Region 119 (S14W24) continues to grow and the delta configuration is now more pronounced. Despite this region's moderate complexity, flare output has been nothing more than occasional minor C-class flares. Early in the period, a large CME was observed, originating along a filament channel near S30E12. The ejecta does not appear earthward directed. New Regions 127 (S14E19) and 128 (N11E63) were numbered today. Region 127 is in close proximity to Region 122 (S18E21), but the consensus is that these are separate regions.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to continue at low to moderate levels. Low M-class flares are possible from Regions 119 and 126.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed began the period near 700 km/s following the arrival of a CME earlier yesterday. However, a weak IMF with sustained northward Bz offset any significant impact on the geomagnetic field.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 21 Sepkuni 23 Sep
Klass M50%50%50%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       20 Sep 164
  Prognoositud   21 Sep-23 Sep  165/160/160
  90 päeva keskmine        20 Sep 178
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 19 Sep  011/013
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 20 Sep  006/010
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  008/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 21 Sep kuni 23 Sep
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%15%15%
Väike torm05%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%20%20%
Väike torm05%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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