Vaata neljapäev, 19 september 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Sep 19 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 262 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 19 Sep 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C4/1f flare from Region 125 (S08E55). An associated Type II
radio sweep and CME was observed with this flare, but the ejecta was
not earthward directed. Region 119 (S14W10) produced occasional low
C-class flares. This region continues to develop and a weak delta
configuration is now evident. Region 105 (S08W83) also produced
minor C-class flares as it rotates around the west limb. New Region
126 (S23E75) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Developing Region 119 has best potential for a low
M-class flare. There is still a small chance for a low M-class flare
from Region 105 on the west limb.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A weak
shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft just before 19/0600Z. Solar
wind speed gradually increased to over 750 km/s by late in the
period, but total magnetic field measurements and densities remained
very low. This disturbance is likely associated with the C8 flare
and CME observed on 17 September. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux was at moderate to high levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to minor storm levels through day
one. Unsettled conditions are expected to prevail after the current
disturbance subsides.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 20 Sepkuni 22 Sep
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 19 Sep 165 Prognoositud 20 Sep-22 Sep 165/160/155 90 päeva keskmine 19 Sep 178
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 18 Sep 013/014 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 19 Sep 018/018 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 020/020-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 20 Sep kuni 22 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 40% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
<< Mine igapäevase ülevaate lehele
Viimane uudis
esmaspäev, 22 aprill 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
laupäev, 23 märts 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
kolmapäev, 20 märts 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Viimane foorumi postitus
AR 3637, 3638, 3643 72Space Weather Memes 338Unproven theories 340Filaments and prominences 55Growth of Cycle 25 433
Veel teemasidToeta SpaceWeatherLive.com-i!
Paljud inimesed külastavad SpaceWeatherLive lehte selleks, et jälgida, mis toimub Päikesel või, kas on oodata virmalisi. Suurema liiklusega on serveri koormus ning maksumus kõrgem. Kui sulle meeldib see, mida me sinu heaks teeme, siis saad sa sellele ka ise natukene kaasa aidata, annetades selle lehe käigus hoidmise ja arendamise heaks. Ette tänades SpeaceWeatherLive meeskond!
Fakte kosmose ilmast
| Viimane X-loide | 28/03/2024 | X1.1 |
| Viimane M-loide | 24/04/2024 | M1.7 |
| Viimane geomagnetiline torm | 19/04/2024 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Plekivabasid päevi | |
|---|---|
| Viimane päikese plekivaba päev | 08/06/2022 |
| Kuu keskmine päikeseplekkide arv | |
|---|---|
| märts 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Viimased 30 päeva | 129.9 +24.3 |