Vaata neljapäev, 29 august 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 241 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 29 Aug 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. After further review of a more comprehensive database set, it appears that the M4 flare that occurred yesterday (no region has been assigned to flare) at 28/1859 UTC could have originated from several different source regions. The most probable source region appears to be from the northeast limb which corresponds to Region 95 (N07E76), which rotated onto the visible disk and became a newly numbered region today. Region 95 did produce the largest flare today, an impulsive M3/Sf flare occurring at 29/1252 UTC with an associated 720 pfu Tenflare. Proximity to limb hinders any meaningful analysis of this region at this time as the most recent white-light images indicate the trailing cluster of spots have yet fully rotated into view. Three other optically uncorrelated low level M-class flares occurred today along with multiple C-class flares. Region 87 (S08W20) showed steady decay over the period although it retains a weak delta magnetic structure in the southeast portion of the spot complex. Despite the region's magnetic structure it only managed to produce minor activity today. The remaining active regions were of little note. Regions 93 (S16E13) and 94 (S17E67) were also assigned today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 30 Augkuni 01 Sep
Klass M60%60%60%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       29 Aug 169
  Prognoositud   30 Aug-01 Sep  170/165/155
  90 päeva keskmine        29 Aug 169
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 28 Aug  007/010
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 29 Aug  008/010
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  008/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 30 Aug kuni 01 Sep
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%15%
Väike torm05%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%20%20%
Väike torm10%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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