Vaata laupäev, 24 august 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Aug 24 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 236 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 24 Aug 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z Solar activity was high. An X3/1f flare occurred at
24/0112 UTC in Region 69. This region has rotated out of view beyond
the west solar limb near SW08. The flare was accompanied by Type
II/IV radio sweeps and discrete radio bursts that included 1200 sfu
output at 2695 MHz. Region 87 (S07E47) also produced an M1/1n flare
at 24/0548 UTC. Other regions of note include 83 (S18W27) and 85
(S09E03). Both produced flares today but without significant x-ray
output. New Region 89 (S16E62) rotated into view.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is possible in Regions 83, 85, and 87.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A greater than 100 MeV
proton event began at 24/0130 UTC, reached a 29 pfu peak at 24/0210
UTC, and dropped below the 1 pfu event threshold at 24/1825 UTC. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 24/0140 UTC, reached a 317
pfu peak at 24/0835 UTC, and remains in progress. The current proton
flux is about 200 pfu. These proton events are associated with the
X3 flare discussed in Part IA.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled to active over the next day or two in
response to flare/CME activity of the past few days. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue in progress for the
next 24-48 hours.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 25 Augkuni 27 Aug
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 99% | 95% | 90% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 24 Aug 196 Prognoositud 25 Aug-27 Aug 190/185/180 90 päeva keskmine 24 Aug 170
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 23 Aug 006/011 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 24 Aug 012/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 25 Aug kuni 27 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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