Vaata kolmapäev, 14 august 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Aug 14 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 226 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 14 Aug 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 61
(N08W69) produced a long-duration M2/1n flare at 14/0212 UTC
associated with a Type II radio sweep, partial-halo CME, and a solar
proton event. Region 61 had been in a state of gradual decay for the
last several days. Region 67 (N11E20) produced an M1/1f flare at
14/1815 UTC as well as a few C-class flares. It was in a growth
phase during the period. Region 69 (S08E37) produced isolated
C-class flares as it continued to gradually increase in area, which
now exceeds 1500 millionths of the solar disk. Region 66 (N13E03)
produced isolated C-class flares as it grew at a gradual pace. New
Regions 78 (S13W12), 79 (S20E55), and 80 (N16E69) were numbered
today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares are possible through
the period. There is a slight chance for a major flare from Region
69.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during
most of the period, with brief active periods detected at high
latitudes. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at
geo-synchronous orbit at 14/0900 UTC and reached a preliminary
maximum of 26 pfu at 14/1620 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geo-synchronous orbit increased to moderate to high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
A geomagnetic disturbance is
expected to begin during the latter half of 15 August and continue
into 16 August following today's long-duration M2/partail-halo CME
event. Active to minor storm conditions are expected during this
disturbance. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on 17 August. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
is expected to end sometime during the first half of the forecast
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at
moderate to high levels during the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 15 Augkuni 17 Aug
| Klass M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 90% | 75% | 40% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 14 Aug 208 Prognoositud 15 Aug-17 Aug 210/215/215 90 päeva keskmine 14 Aug 165
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 13 Aug 009/013 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 015/020-025/030-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 15 Aug kuni 17 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 20% | 01% |
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