Vaata pühapäev, 11 august 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Aug 11 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 223 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 Aug 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. The two largest x-ray flares of the period were optically uncorrelated: A C9.5 flare at 11/1147 UTC, and a C7.9 flare at 11/1801 UTC. LASCO imagery revealed no evident CME activity following the first event, and was unavailable for the second event, however neither event was accompanied by any significant CME-related radio emissions. A 19-degree filament disappearance occurred near N28W51 at about 11/0700, close to the western end of a long filament channel that extends to the northeast limb. No CME was evident in available LASCO imagery following this event. Regions 61 (N07W28), 66 (N13E42), and newly numbered 69 (S08E77) were all sources of lesser C-class activity. Region 61 appears to be undergoing an accelerated decay in size and complexity. New Region 69 appears large and complex in white light, but its limb proximity prevents a detailed magnetic analysis. Three other regions were also numbered: 70 (N05W05), 71 (N11E68), and 72 (N18W23). All appear relatively simply structured at present. 10cm flux experienced a rapid rise with the appearance of the new regions.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, but with a fair chance for isolated M-class activity over the next three days, primarily due to new Region 69.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A trend toward elevated solar wind speed and sustained southward Bz appeared to persist for most of the day, and may indicate the early influence of expected high speed stream effects.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active conditions for the next three days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 Augkuni 14 Aug
Klass M35%35%35%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       11 Aug 172
  Prognoositud   12 Aug-14 Aug  175/180/185
  90 päeva keskmine        11 Aug 164
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 10 Aug  013/016
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 11 Aug  013/018
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  012/012-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 Aug kuni 14 Aug
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%30%25%
Väike torm10%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%35%30%
Väike torm10%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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