Vaata laupäev, 10 august 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Aug 10 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 222 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 10 Aug 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. No optical reports were received for the minor C-class flare activity observed throughout the period. However, a large filament located near central meridian at about N30 appeared to dissipate early in the period, in association with a subsequent CME evident in LASCO C2 imagery at about 09/2330 UTC. This CME appears directed largely north of the ecliptic. Two new regions rotated into view on the east limb and were numbered today: Region 67 (N09E71) and Region 68 (S07E71).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. Region 61 (N08W15) is still a moderately large region which could produce isolated M-class activity during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels early in the period, then at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder. The isolated minor storm period was observed at higher latitudes during 10/0300-0600 UTC, in probable association with a sustained period of southward Bz during that time.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the first day of the forecast period. Isolated active periods are possible on day two and three, due to expected coronal hole effects, or possibly some flanking shock passage effects from the CME activity described in section 1A above.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 11 Augkuni 13 Aug
Klass M25%25%25%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       10 Aug 148
  Prognoositud   11 Aug-13 Aug  145/150/150
  90 päeva keskmine        10 Aug 164
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 09 Aug  009/015
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 10 Aug  009/015
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  008/010-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 11 Aug kuni 13 Aug
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%25%30%
Väike torm05%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%30%35%
Väike torm05%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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