Vaata laupäev, 27 juuli 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Jul 27 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 208 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 27 Jul 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 44 (S22E03) produced two major flares early in the period: an M8/2n at 26/2112 UTC and an M5 at 26/2217 UTC, both associated with moderate to strong discrete radio bursts. The M8 flare was also associated with a full-halo CME. Both major flares occurred along the magnetic neutral line separating Regions 44 and 39 (S16E07). Some decay was observed in the leader spots of Region 44, but it remained large and magnetically complex with a magnetic delta configuration evident within its intermediate spots. Region 39 produced isolated C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 27/0212 UTC. It also remained large and complex, but changed little during the period. Strong magnetic delta configurations persisted within its leading and trailing spots. Region 45 (N06W25) was in a growth phase and displayed minor polarity mixing. New Region 51 (S17E65) was assigned.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are expected from Regions 39 and 44. There is also a fair chance for a major flare from either of these regions.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels during most of the period. This activity may have been due to a weak high-speed solar wind stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/0655 UTC ended at 27/0320 UTC. The maximum flux for this event was 28 pfu at 23/1025 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels at the start of the period. Activity is expected to increase to active to major storm levels beginning late on 28 July as today's halo CME reaches Earth. This disturbance is expected to subside to mostly unsettled levels by 30 July. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event during the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 28 Julkuni 30 Jul
Klass M80%80%80%
Klass X30%30%30%
Prooton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       27 Jul 231
  Prognoositud   28 Jul-30 Jul  230/225/220
  90 päeva keskmine        27 Jul 164
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 26 Jul  010/017
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 27 Jul  013/017
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  010/012-025/030-018/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 28 Jul kuni 30 Jul
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%40%30%
Väike torm10%20%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%10%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%45%35%
Väike torm15%25%15%
Suur-tõsine torm01%15%10%

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