Vaata pühapäev, 21 juuli 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Jul 21 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 202 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 21 Jul 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z Solar activity was high. The event in progress at issue
time yesterday, from behind the east limb near S10, reached the X3
level at 20/2130UTC. There was an associated type II sweep and
tenflare. The site of the activity has, as yet, failed to fully
appear, but should do so in the next 24 hours. Some plage and
faculae are now visible in that vicinity. Elsewhere, Regions 30
(N18W76) and 36 (S06W02) continue to impress in white light and
H-alpha, but have been relatively quiet. One new region, 38
(N17E51), was assigned.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Watch the east limb for more energetic activity over the
next three days.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels during the
period. Faster than normal solar wind, with some southward Bz,
brought periods of minor storm conditions to local nighttime
sectors. An enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons has
occurred, with current readings near 5 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels for a few
hours near midday.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to mildly active for the next three days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 22 Julkuni 24 Jul
| Klass M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Klass X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Prooton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 21 Jul 183 Prognoositud 22 Jul-24 Jul 185/185/185 90 päeva keskmine 21 Jul 161
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 20 Jul 013/018 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 21 Jul 015/018 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 22 Jul kuni 24 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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