Vaata esmaspäev, 15 juuli 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Jul 15 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 196 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 15 Jul 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 30
(N18W00) produced an X3/3b flare at 15/2008UTC associated with a
1900 sfu Tenflare, a Type IV radio sweep, and a magnetic crochet
(based on Boulder USGS magnetometer data). This region also produced
frequent C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 15/1155 UTC associated
with a Type II radio sweep. Region 30 showed significant growth in
its trailer spots during the past few days including the formation
of multiple magnetic delta configurations. The remaining active
regions were unremarkable. New Regions 35 (S09E63) and 36 (S07E76)
were numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 30 is likely to produce isolated M-class flares.
Region 30 could also produce another major flare during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to active levels on 16 July due to
recurrent coronal hole effects. Activity may increase to active to
minor storm levels on 17 July following today's X-flare. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event is expected to begin early on 16 July, also
due to today's X-flare.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 16 Julkuni 18 Jul
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Red | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 15 Jul 160 Prognoositud 16 Jul-18 Jul 160/165/170 90 päeva keskmine 15 Jul 161
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 14 Jul 001/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 15 Jul 005/006 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 012/012-020/020-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 16 Jul kuni 18 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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