Vaata neljapäev, 30 mai 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 May 30 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 150 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 30 May 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9973 (S16E48) produced the largest flare of the period, an M1/Sf occurred at 30/1725 UTC. This region also produced several minor subflares, some of which were associated with Type III radio sweep activity. Also, it may have been responsible for several optically uncorrelated C-class flares. It underwent a very slight decay, but retained a gamma magnetic configuration within its trailer spots. Old Region 9957 produced the first M1 x-ray flare today at 30/0532 UTC. The associated partial halo CME seen on LASCO imagery does not appear as though it will be geoeffective. Region 9963 (N16W56) produced a lone C1/Sf flare during the period. This region underwent some decay today, although it retains a weak gamma magnetic classification in its lead cluster of spots. New Region 9976 (S10E01) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 9973 has a slight chance of producing a major event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite hinted that a weak shock passage occurred at approximately 30/0030 UTC, with unsettled conditions following. This was believed to be from the disappearing filament on 27 May.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be possible through day one of the forecast period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 31 Maykuni 02 Jun
Klass M50%50%50%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       30 May 180
  Prognoositud   31 May-02 Jun  180/175/170
  90 päeva keskmine        30 May 182
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 29 May  006/012
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 30 May  010/012
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  008/010-005/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 31 May kuni 02 Jun
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%15%
Väike torm05%01%01%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%20%20%
Väike torm10%10%05%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%01%

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