Vaata laupäev, 25 mai 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 May 25 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 145 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 May 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Occasional subflares occurred, some of which were associated with C-class X-ray events. Region 9960 (N14W20) produced a single C-class subflare. It underwent slight decay, but retained a delta magnetic configuration within its trailer spots. Region 9961 (S21W04) produced a long-duration C-class subflare at 25/1721 UTC associated with minor radio emission and a narrow-width CME from the south pole. The CME did not appear to be Earth-directed. It showed gradual decay with a persistent, but weakened delta within its intermediate spots. Region 9957 (N10W45) displayed little change during the period. Magnetic delta configurations were present in the northern and southern portions of this region, though they appeared to have dissipated and reformed during the past day or two. New Region 9969 (N09E67) produced occasional subflares. This region may have a moderate degree of complexity, though it is too close to the east limb for a detailed analysis.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9957, 9961, and 9963 appear capable of isolated M-class flare production. There is a slight chance for an isolated major flare during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period. However, brief active intervals are possible on 26 May due to recurrent coronal hole effects. There is a slight chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 Maykuni 28 May
Klass M50%50%50%
Klass X10%10%10%
Prooton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       25 May 183
  Prognoositud   26 May-28 May  180/180/180
  90 päeva keskmine        25 May 183
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 24 May  003/007
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 25 May  005/007
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  012/010-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 May kuni 28 May
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%25%20%
Väike torm15%10%05%
Suur-tõsine torm05%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%30%25%
Väike torm20%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%01%01%

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