Vaata reede, 24 mai 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 May 24 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 144 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 24 May 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9963 (N15E23) produced an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 24/0646 UTC and a
few C-class flares. There were no significant changes noted in this
region. An optically uncorrelated Type II radio sweep occurred at
24/0322 UTC. Region 9957 (N11W32) continued to gradually decay, but
remained moderately complex. Region 9960 (N14W09) showed no
significant changes during the period, but retained a delta magnetic
configuration within its trailer spots. Region 9961 (S22E09)
appeared to be in a decay phase with a weakened delta magnetic
configuration within its intermediate spots. New Region 9968
(S13E26) was numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Isolated M-class flares are possible from Regions 9957,
9960, and 9961. There is also a slight chance for a major flare
during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/1755 UTC ended at
24/1455 UTC. The maximum flux for this event was 820 pfu at 23/1055
UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Active periods are
possible during 25 May due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected during the rest of the period.
There is a slight chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 25 Maykuni 27 May
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 24 May 189 Prognoositud 25 May-27 May 180/180/180 90 päeva keskmine 24 May 184
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 23 May 052/054 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 24 May 006/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 015/015-010/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 25 May kuni 27 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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