Vaata neljapäev, 23 mai 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 May 23 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 143 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 May 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9961 (S22E22) grew slowly as it produced a few minor C-class flares. The delta configuration is now apparent in the center of the group, as the leading spot simplified. Region 9957 (N10W19) decayed slightly but still retains a modest degree of magnetic complexity. Two new regions, 9966 (N10E34) and 9967 (N13E46) emerged.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9957 and 9961 are the most likely sites for isolated M-class flares. There continues to be a slight chance for a major flare event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to severe storm levels. The first of two shocks detected today passed ACE around 1000 UTC, as solar wind speeds increased from 400 to 600 km/s, causing a sudden impulse of 87 nT to be registered at Boulder at 1051 UTC. At approximately 1500 UTC, a second shock, boosting solar wind speeds to near 1,000 km/s for a short period, was seen at ACE. This perturbation caused a 26 nT sudden impulse at Boulder at 1545 UTC. This activity is thought to be an effect of the multiple CMEs observed to leave the sun yesterday. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/1755 UTC attained a tentative maximum of 820 pfu at 23/1055 UTC and continues in progress.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24 hours as the current disturbance wanes. No additional shocks or CMEs are expected. The field should continue to calm to unsettled conditions by the end of the interval. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes should continue to slowly decline.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 Maykuni 26 May
Klass M50%50%50%
Klass X10%10%10%
Prooton35%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       23 May 180
  Prognoositud   24 May-26 May  175/170/170
  90 päeva keskmine        23 May 184
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 22 May  010/014
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 23 May  045/050
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  025/030-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 May kuni 26 May
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne45%40%30%
Väike torm25%20%15%
Suur-tõsine torm25%10%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%25%30%
Väike torm25%30%20%
Suur-tõsine torm40%20%15%

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