Vaata laupäev, 27 aprill 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Apr 27 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 117 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 27 Apr 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C4/Sf from Region 9919 (N12E14). Other minor C-class flares
were observed in this Beta region. No significant activity or
changes were noted in the remaining active regions. The filament
eruption observed late in the last period from near S32W12 produced
a large CME, but it does not appear Earthbound. New Region 9926
(N12E26) was numbered today. This spot cluster was formerly grouped
with Region 9919, but magnetograms indicate that it is a separate
region.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Regions 9915 (N11W26) and 9919 will likely produce
C-class flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, but became unsettled late in
the period. Solar wind indices on ACE suggest that we are
transitioning into a high speed coronal hole stream. The greater
than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated
following the proton event that began on 21 Apr and ended on the
26th.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods at all
latitudes due to high speed coronal hole flow. Minor storm
conditions are expected at high latitudes during local nighttime
hours. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions to return by day three.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 28 Aprkuni 30 Apr
| Klass M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 27 Apr 157 Prognoositud 28 Apr-30 Apr 160/160/165 90 päeva keskmine 27 Apr 195
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 26 Apr 002/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 27 Apr 007/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 012/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 28 Apr kuni 30 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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