Vaata esmaspäev, 22 aprill 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 112 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 Apr 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 9906 (S14W103), now well beyond the west limb, produced a C7 X-ray flare at 22/0019 UTC associated with a bright surge and an eruptive prominence. Region 9912 (N10W25) produced a C2/Sf flare at 22/1210 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 804 km/sec). Region 9912 was in a gradual growth phase. A weak magnetic delta configuration may have developed within its trailer spots. New Region 9917 (S30E45) was numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There's a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9912.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels occurred during 22/0300 - 0600 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 21/0155 UTC reached a peak of 22.9 pfu at 21/1025 UTC and was in progress as the period ended. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 21/0225 UTC reached a peak of 2520 pfu at 21/2320 UTC and was in progress as the period ended. Peak polar cap absorption associated with the proton event was estimated to be 16 dB (daytime) and 3.9 dB (nighttime).
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to active to minor storm levels on 23 April in response to yesterday's X1/partial-halo CME event. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 24 April as the disturbance winds down. Unsettled conditions are expected on the final day. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end early on 23 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on 24 April.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Aprkuni 25 Apr
Klass M40%40%40%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton99%99%20%
PCAFin progress
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       22 Apr 170
  Prognoositud   23 Apr-25 Apr  170/175/175
  90 päeva keskmine        22 Apr 199
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 Apr  004/007
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  013/015
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  025/030-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 Apr kuni 25 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%40%35%
Väike torm20%10%05%
Suur-tõsine torm10%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne50%50%40%
Väike torm30%20%10%
Suur-tõsine torm15%10%01%

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