Vaata esmaspäev, 8 aprill 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Apr 08 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 098 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 08 Apr 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9901 (N19E24)
produced a C6/Sf flare at 08/0150 UTC and has doubled it's penumbral
coverage since yesterday. A C6 x-ray flare which appears to have
originated in Region 9899 (N18E46) was the largest flare of the
period, occurring at 08/2046 UTC. This region has shown slow but
steady growth today, in both magnetic complexity and penumbral
coverage. Multiple minor C-class were observed today with many
going optically uncorrelated. Region 9893 (N18E13) was quiescent
today producing no optically correlated flares although this region
has developed a weak delta magnetic spot in the trailing polarity of
the group. New Region 9903 (N19E74) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than
10 MeV electron flux was slightly elevated throughout the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at predominantly quiet with occasional unsettled
conditions throughout the forecast period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 09 Aprkuni 11 Apr
| Klass M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 08 Apr 206 Prognoositud 09 Apr-11 Apr 200/195/185 90 päeva keskmine 08 Apr 203
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 07 Apr 008/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 08 Apr 003/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 005/005-004/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 09 Apr kuni 11 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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