Vaata reede, 22 märts 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Mar 22 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 081 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 Mar 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9866 (S10W96) produced a long-duration M1 X-ray flare at 22/1114 UTC
as it crossed the west limb. The flare was associated with a halo
CME and a proton event at greater than 10 MeV. Region 9866 was in a
slow decay phase during the last few days of its passage. Region
9878 (N08E54) produced a C8 X-ray flare at 22/0618 UTC. Minor growth
may have occurred in this region. Region 9871 (S20W47) retained
minor magnetic complexity near its leader spots, but was relatively
stable. New Regions 9881 (S05W08) and 9882 (N15E74) were numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated, low-level
M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geo-synchronous orbit at
22/2020 UTC in the wake of today's long-duration M1 flare. The event
was in progress and slowly increasing at the close of the period
with a reading of 10.5 pfu at 22/2100 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period. However, there will be a chance for brief active levels on
25 March in response to today's CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event is expected to end early on 23 March.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Markuni 25 Mar
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 99% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 22 Mar 172 Prognoositud 23 Mar-25 Mar 170/165/165 90 päeva keskmine 22 Mar 212
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 Mar 005/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 22 Mar 008/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 010/010-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 Mar kuni 25 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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