Vaata teisipäev, 19 veebruar 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Feb 19 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 050 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 19 Feb 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9830 (S20E07) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 18/2115 UTC as
well as isolated C-class subflares, none of which were associated
with significant radio emission. Region 9830 continued to gradually
develop with increased area and magnetic complexity. Most of the
region's complexity lies within its large leader spots where
multiple, strong magnetic delta configurations have formed over the
past few days. Region 9825 (N16W66) produced an impulsive C-class
flare as it continued to gradually decay. The remaining regions were
unremarkable. New Region 9833 (N11W16) was numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are likely.
Region 9830 could produce an isolated major flare during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
Unsettled to active conditions occurred during 18/2100 - 2400 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Region 9830 provides a
slight chance for a proton flare during the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 20 Febkuni 22 Feb
| Klass M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 19 Feb 189 Prognoositud 20 Feb-22 Feb 195/200/205 90 päeva keskmine 19 Feb 222
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 18 Feb 006/009 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 19 Feb 007/006 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 007/008-007/008-007/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 20 Feb kuni 22 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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