Vaata laupäev, 2 veebruar 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Feb 02 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 033 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 02 Feb 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9800 (N10W44)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C5/Sf at 01/2120 UTC.
This region continues to show slow decay while retaining it's
beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 9802 (S14W18) produced two
minor C-class flares during the period and has also shown some
slight decay in penumbral coverage. However, the delta magnetic
configuration within the dominate intermediate spot remains intact.
Multiple Type III radio sweeps and a pair of radio bursts comprised
the rest of the recorded activity for the period. New Regions 9811
(S27E83) and 9812 (N12W16) were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9802 has the potential to produce
M-class flare activity, possibly an isolated major flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels.
An isolated period of minor storm conditions occurred at 02/0600 -
0900 UTC. This was preceded with a sudden impulse at the Boulder
magnetometer of 45 nT at 02/0558 UTC. This transient is presumed to
be related to M3 x-ray flare that occurred in old Region 9787 at
31/1444 UTC. The optical correlation for this flare was attained
using SOHO/EIT imagery, as this region had rotated beyond the west
limb.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for
isolated active conditions through day one of the forecast period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 03 Febkuni 05 Feb
| Klass M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 02 Feb 241 Prognoositud 03 Feb-05 Feb 240/240/240 90 päeva keskmine 02 Feb 225
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 01 Feb 011/011 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 02 Feb 016/018 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 010/015-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 03 Feb kuni 05 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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