Vaata laupäev, 15 detsember 2001 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Dec 15 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 349 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 15 Dec 2001

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. There were two large, magnetically complex sunspot groups on the visible disk: Region 9727 (S22W88) and Region 9733 (N14W23). Region 9727 produced isolated subflares while crossing the west limb. It retained at least a moderate degree of magnetic complexity as it rotated out of view with mixed polarities in its trailer spots. Region 9733 remained the most active region on the disk as it produced occasional subflares, some of which reached C-class. This region has showed a gradual decrease in area since 13 December. However, opposite-polarity magnetic flux has gradually emerged within its northernmost spots during the last two days where a possible delta magnetic configuration may reside. The remaining active regions showed minor changes during the period. New Region 9742 (N09E73) rotated into view during the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are expected. There will also be a chance for a major flare from Region 9733. Region 9727 could also produce a major flare during the first day of the period as it completes its west limb passage.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Unsettled to minor storm conditions may occur on 16 - 17 December due to a possible CME passage (associated with the X6/3b flare of 13 December). Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during the latter half of the forecast period. There will be a chance for a proton flare from Region 9733.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 16 Deckuni 18 Dec
Klass M80%75%75%
Klass X20%15%15%
Prooton20%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       15 Dec 218
  Prognoositud   16 Dec-18 Dec  205/195/190
  90 päeva keskmine        15 Dec 218
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 14 Dec  004/004
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 15 Dec  013/012
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  015/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 16 Dec kuni 18 Dec
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%30%25%
Väike torm15%10%05%
Suur-tõsine torm05%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%35%30%
Väike torm20%15%05%
Suur-tõsine torm10%05%01%

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