Vaata kolmapäev, 12 detsember 2001 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Dec 12 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 346 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 12 Dec 2001

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 9733 (N14E18) produced an M3/1n flare at 12/1911 UTC associated with a 420 sfu Tenflare. This large, complex spot group remained in a growth phase with a delta magnetic configuration observed within its northernmost trailer spots. Region 9727 (S21W52) produced occasional subflares, the largest of which was a C9 at 12/2024 UTC. This region also grew during the period and remained large and complex with delta magnetic configurations in its interior and trailer spots. Region 9736 (S09W55) showed minor growth during the period and produced isolated C-class subflares. New Region 9738 (S21E67) was numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels with isolated, low-level M-class flares likely. There will also be a chance for a major flare from Regions 9727 or 9733.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Unsettled to minor storm levels occurred during 12/0900 - 1200 UTC. ACE data suggest a solar sector boundary crossing (positive- to negative-polarity) as the cause for this brief period of increased activity. Mostly quiet levels occurred during the remainder of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period. However, brief active periods will be possible during 14 - 15 December due to coronal hole effects. There will be a chance for a proton flare from Regions 9727 or 9733.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 13 Deckuni 15 Dec
Klass M80%80%80%
Klass X20%20%20%
Prooton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       12 Dec 237
  Prognoositud   13 Dec-15 Dec  220/220/210
  90 päeva keskmine        12 Dec 219
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 11 Dec  003/004
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 12 Dec  012/012
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  012/012-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 13 Dec kuni 15 Dec
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%20%20%
Väike torm10%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%25%25%
Väike torm15%15%15%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%01%

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