Vaata neljapäev, 22 november 2001 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Nov 22 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 326 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 Nov 2001

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. The largest, and most notable, event of the period was a M3/2n flare from Region 9698 (S25W68) at 22/2036 UTC. An associated 630 sfu tenflare and Type-II radio sweep (estimated velocity 890 km/s) were also observed, and an energetic proton flux enhancement was in progress, but below threshold, at the end of the period. This event also produced a greatly enhanced 10cm noon flux observation of 283 sfu, so the morning value of 190 sfu was substituted to better represent the background flux for the period. The source region for this event (Region 9698) is particularly remarkable, after having decayed to its present alpha magnetic configuration (a single Hsx spot, with 110 millionths areal coverage), following ten days on the visible disk without any other optical or x-ray activity observed. Region 9704 (S18W38) also produced an M-class event, a M1/1f flare at 22/1708 UTC. Two new regions were numbered today: 9713 (N08E03) and 9714 (S11E36).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to persist at low to moderate levels for the next three days. Region 9704 is expected to remain a principle source of flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. An energetic proton flux enhancement was in progress, but below threshold, at the end of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled through November 23, with an increase to active and isolated minor storm conditions expected for November 24 and 25, due to yesterday's and today's CME activity. An energetic proton event is expected to develop within the next few hours due to the flare event described in section 1A above.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Novkuni 25 Nov
Klass M35%35%35%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       22 Nov 190
  Prognoositud   23 Nov-25 Nov  175/170/170
  90 päeva keskmine        22 Nov 218
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 Nov  002/006
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 22 Nov  008/008
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  010/010-018/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 Nov kuni 25 Nov
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%25%30%
Väike torm05%10%15%
Suur-tõsine torm01%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%35%35%
Väike torm05%15%15%
Suur-tõsine torm01%10%10%

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