Vaata reede, 9 november 2001 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 313 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 Nov 2001

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z

Activity remained at high levels due to an abundance of M-class flares (none of which reached major flare criteria). Region 9690 (S18E16) was responsible for most of the M-class flares including the largest of the day: an M3/1n flare at 09/0856 UTC associated with minor centimetric radio bursts. This region remained the largest and most complex on the disk with an area exceeding 1400 millions of the visible disk. It continued to grow in area and complexity with multiple magnetic delta configurations and strong magnetic field gradients. Region 9687 (S20W31) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 09/1841 UTC associated with weak Type II and IV radio sweeps and minor centimetric radio bursts. This region remained moderate in size and magnetic complexity with some polarity mixing evident in its leader spots, but showed no significant changes. Region 9692 (N06W39) showed significant growth during the period, but produced no flares. It remained simply-structured. Region 9684 (N06W95) rotated out of view. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. M-class flares are expected. Region 9690 may produce a major flare during the period. Region 9687 also provides a slight chance for an isolated major flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continued as it hovered near event threshold during the latter half of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected during most of the period. However, active conditions will be possible during the first two days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on 10 November. There will be a slight chance for another proton flare during the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Novkuni 12 Nov
Klass M90%90%90%
Klass X30%30%30%
Prooton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       09 Nov 271
  Prognoositud   10 Nov-12 Nov  260/265/270
  90 päeva keskmine        09 Nov 211
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 Nov  003/005
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  005/005
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  012/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 Nov kuni 12 Nov
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%30%25%
Väike torm15%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%35%30%
Väike torm20%20%15%
Suur-tõsine torm10%10%05%

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