Vaata teisipäev, 6 november 2001 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 310 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 Nov 2001

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Four M-class events were reported during the period. Region 9687 (S20E08) produced the largest event, an M2/1b flare at 06/0300 UTC. This event also had an accompanying Type II radio sweep (velocity estimated at 600 km/s). Region 9687 developed into a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification during the period. Region 9690 was by far, the most active region on the disk today. It produced several C-class events and two minor M-class events. Region 9690 has fully rotated onto the disk and appears to be a moderately large region (750 millionths) with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 9684 (N06W55), which produced the X1/3b proton flare on 04 November, retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification, but did not produce any significant activity during the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to continue to be moderate to high. Regions 9684, 9687, and 9690 all possess major flare potential.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm conditions. The full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) from the 04 November event impacted the geomagnetic field at 06/0150 UTC. This was indicated by a 90 nT sudden impulse as measured by the USGS Boulder magnetometer. Severe geomagnetic storming occurred between 06/0000 and 06/0600 UTC and 15-1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event peaked at 31,700 pfu at 06/0215 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton event peaked at 253 pfu at 06/0220 UTC. Both proton events levels declined sharply during the period but continued through the end of the day. A polar cap absorption event remained in effect.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm conditions on the first day of the period and then declining to mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active conditions possible, on days two and three. However, there have been several long and near long duration flares in the last two days that could have produced earth-directed coronal mass ejections. Since the onset of the proton storm at approximately 1700 UTC on 04 November, the LASCO instrument has been saturated by the particles and it is nearly impossible to determine if any CME's have been produced or if they are earth-directed. Impacts from any earth-directed CME's would obviously cause an increase in geomagnetic activity. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to continue until approximately 07/1200 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event ended the day at 567 pfu and is expected to continue for at least another 24 hours. The Polar cap absorption event is expected to last until 09/0000 UTC.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 Novkuni 09 Nov
Klass M80%80%80%
Klass X25%25%25%
Prooton99%99%80%
PCAFin progress
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       06 Nov 237
  Prognoositud   07 Nov-09 Nov  235/235/230
  90 päeva keskmine        06 Nov 208
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 05 Nov  012/013
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  075/100
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  030/030-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 Nov kuni 09 Nov
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne50%35%35%
Väike torm25%15%15%
Suur-tõsine torm04%04%04%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%30%25%
Väike torm35%15%15%
Suur-tõsine torm20%10%05%

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