Vaata neljapäev, 1 november 2001 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 305 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 01 Nov 2001

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been high due to five M-class events observed during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was an M3/Sf at 1210 UTC from newly numbered Region 9687 (S19E71). Region 9687 produced three additional M-class events and exhibited frequent brightenings throughout the day. An additional M-class event (M1/Sf) came from Region 9678 (N07W75) at 0653 UTC. Region 9682 (N11W22) continues to dominate the disk in terms of apparent size and magnetic complexity, and also exhibited occasional flare activity during the day, some of which were occurring at the same time as flare activity in Region 9687. SXI imagery clearly indicated, however, that new Region 9687 was the dominant contributor to the X-ray flux during the four M-class events mentioned previously.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class events should continue, with regions 9687 and 9682 being the main contributors to activity. There continues to be a chance for an isolated major flare event or proton producing event during the next three days.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. Approximately five hours after yesterday's shock at 31/1352 UTC, the interplanetary magnetic field turned southward and maintained moderately strong negative values (-8 to -12 nT) from 31/1810 UTC until around 01/1710 UTC. This led to mostly active levels, with a minor storm period from 0600-0900 UTC. At forecast issue time activity had declined to unsettled and Bz was weakly northwards.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 02 Novkuni 04 Nov
Klass M90%90%90%
Klass X25%25%25%
Prooton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       01 Nov 236
  Prognoositud   02 Nov-04 Nov  225/225/230
  90 päeva keskmine        01 Nov 204
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/009
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  025/025
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  012/012-012/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 02 Nov kuni 04 Nov
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%25%20%
Väike torm15%15%15%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%25%20%
Väike torm15%15%15%
Suur-tõsine torm10%10%05%

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