Vaata pühapäev, 21 oktoober 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Oct 21 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 294 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 21 Oct 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9661
(N14W64) produced an M2/2n flare at 21/1136 UTC with associated
discrete frequency radio bursts. Analysis in white light of this
region also shows a re-emergence of the delta magnetic
configuration. An optically uncorrelated M1 flare was observed at
21/0518 UTC and an associated Type II radio sweep with a shock
velocity of 536 km/s. Using SXI imagery it would appear that this
flare had occurred in Region 9670 (S18E06). Several C-class flares
were produced from Region 9674 (S09E07) during the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Regions 9661 and 9670 remain capable of
producing M-class or isolated major flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. A
strong shock was observed at ACE at 21/1614 UTC. This was followed
by a sudden impulse at 21/1645 UTC (measured as 15 nt on the Boulder
magnetometer). The sudden impulse was followed by minor
(21/1500-1800 UTC) and major (21/1800-2100 UTC) storm levels. BZ
was predominantly negative since the arrival of shock up until the
time of issue of this bulletin.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to major storm levels. The full halo CME
from the X1/2b flare that occurred at 19/1630 UTC from Region 9661
is expected to arrive on the middle of day one of the forecast
period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 22 Octkuni 24 Oct
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 60% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Prooton | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 21 Oct 224 Prognoositud 22 Oct-24 Oct 225/225/215 90 päeva keskmine 21 Oct 191
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 20 Oct 008/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 21 Oct 025/030 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 030/035-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 22 Oct kuni 24 Oct
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 40% | 15% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| Väike torm | 50% | 30% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
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