Vaata reede, 19 oktoober 2001 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 292 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 19 Oct 2001

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 9661 (N16W35) was very active producing two X class flares. The first flare was a X1/2b at 19/0105 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (914 km/s). The second flare was a X1/2b at 19/1630 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (738 km/s). SOHO/LASCO imagery shows full halo CMEs associated with both events. A Type IV radio sweep was also detected with both CME events. Other activity was centered around Region 9658 (S14W61). This region produced an M5/1b flare at 19/0943 UTC and several other minor M-class and C-class flares. New Region 9674 (S08E34) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9658 and Region 9661 are very active producing major flares. There has been very little change in their characteristics from yesterday, so the potential for a major flare remains good.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled. Greater than 10 MeV proton levels was enhanced due to the two CMEs from Region 9661, but remained just below event threshold.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for day one. Quiet to minor storm levels are expected on day two and three with the possibility for isolated major storm conditions. Analysis of the full halo CME (19/0105 UTC from Region 9661) indicated shock arrival late on day two or early on day three (57-72 hour transit time). The shock arrival from the second full halo CME (19/1630 UTC from Region 9661) is expected to arrive late on day three of the period (76-81 hour transit time). Greater than 10 MeV proton levels may exceed event threshold on the first day of the period. Further enhancements may occur if major flare activity continues.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 20 Octkuni 22 Oct
Klass M75%75%75%
Klass X20%20%20%
Prooton75%50%20%
PCAFred
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       19 Oct 248
  Prognoositud   20 Oct-22 Oct  250/250/245
  90 päeva keskmine        19 Oct 189
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 18 Oct  002/004
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 19 Oct  006/008
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  010/012-025/025-030/035
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 20 Oct kuni 22 Oct
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%55%55%
Väike torm05%30%30%
Suur-tõsine torm01%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%55%55%
Väike torm15%30%35%
Suur-tõsine torm05%10%10%

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