Vaata neljapäev, 18 oktoober 2001 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Oct 18 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 291 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 18 Oct 2001

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The first half of the day produced multiple low level C-class flares that were not optically correlated. At 18/1350 UTC, Region 9658 (S14W48) produced a C6/1n flare and associated radio enhancements. White light analysis of this region shows a slight decay in areal coverage of spots, though it remains a beta-gamma magnetic class group. Region 9661 (N16W23) followed with a C4/Sf flare at 18/1609 UTC and continues to show the potential to produce much more significant activity. This region has shown a small decay in areal coverage of spot group from yesterday, although it still continues to be a large, magnetically complex region. New Region 9672 (S21E69) produced the largest flare of the day, a C8/Sf flare that occurred at 18/1905 UTC. This region may very well be old Region 9632 which currently appears to have not fully rotated onto disk. Two new Regions were numbered today, 9672 and 9673 (N03E73).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There are several regions on the disk that are capable of producing M-class or isolated major flares, the most noteworthy being Region 9661.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels through forecast period, barring the occurrence of an earth-directed CME. High latitudes may experience isolated periods of active conditions during days one and two.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 19 Octkuni 21 Oct
Klass M60%60%60%
Klass X10%10%10%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       18 Oct 229
  Prognoositud   19 Oct-21 Oct  235/240/245
  90 päeva keskmine        18 Oct 188
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 17 Oct  002/004
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 18 Oct  005/006
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  005/010-005/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 19 Oct kuni 21 Oct
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%20%
Väike torm05%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%20%20%
Väike torm05%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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