Vaata teisipäev, 25 september 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Sep 25 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 268 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 Sep 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9628 (S18W14) produced
an M7/1n with associated Type II sweep at 0440 UTC. In addition, the
region also generated an M2/1n with Type II at 1027 UTC, and an
M1/Sf at 0148 UTC. This region was the premier flare site of the day
as Region 9632 (S19E06), the site of the X2/2b flare of 24/1038 UTC,
was unproductive. There are fifteen spotted regions visible today,
with new region 9638 (N03E61), the most recent addition.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Both Regions 9628 and 9632 retain the potential
for additional M-class activity, and a possible isolated X-class
event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet until the end of the interval. A
shock, presumably related to the flare/CME of 24/1038 UTC, passed
ACE at approximately 2003 UTC. A sudden impulse then occurred at
Boulder at 2025 UTC, measuring 25 nT. The field is now at active
levels. The proton events at greater than 10 and 100 MeV continue.
The tentative peak flux for the greater than 10 MeV event is 5040
pfu at 2100 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV tentative max was 31 pfu
at 0755 UTC. The Polar Cap Absorption event remains in progress.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at major storm levels during the next 24-36 hours,
due to the effects of a shock/cme related to the X2/2b flare of
24/1038 UTC. The storm should persist through 27 September. The
current proton events are expected to continue for at least the next
24 hours.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 Sepkuni 28 Sep
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Prooton | 99% | 90% | 75% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 Sep 275 Prognoositud 26 Sep-28 Sep 270/265/260 90 päeva keskmine 25 Sep 169
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 24 Sep 005/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 25 Sep 010/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 080/100-040/040-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 Sep kuni 28 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 50% | 60% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 65% | 25% | 15% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 40% | 60% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 70% | 40% | 20% |
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