Vaata laupäev, 15 september 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Sep 15 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 258 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 15 Sep 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. There were three low
level M-class events during the period. Region 9608 (S28W54)
produced an M1/1n at 15/1128 UTC. This event was accompanied by a
Type II radio sweep with an approximate speed of 700 km/s. Data
from SOHO/LASCO indicated a CME visible with this event. Region 9616
(S12W68) produced an M3 at 14/2150 UTC which was confirmed by the
LASCO/EIT images, and an M1/1f at 15/1559 UTC.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated major flare is possible from Region 9608,
9610 (S13W46), or 9616.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event began at 15/1435 UTC with a peak flux observed at
15/1455 UTC of 11 pfu. Protons remain enhanced at this time. The
most likely source of this activity was the CME from Region 9608 at
15/1128 UTC mentioned in Part IA above.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Unsettled to
active conditions are possible on 18 September as a result of
today's CME activity and a recurrent high speed stream in the solar
wind. The greater than 10 MeV protons should remain enhanced for
the first day of the forecast period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 16 Sepkuni 18 Sep
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 90% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 15 Sep 219 Prognoositud 16 Sep-18 Sep 215/215/210 90 päeva keskmine 15 Sep 165
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 14 Sep 008/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 15 Sep 015/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 015/015-012/012-020/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 16 Sep kuni 18 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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