Vaata kolmapäev, 9 mai 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 May 09 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 129 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 May 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
9445 (N25W67) produced both of today's C1/Sf flares, the first at
0603 UTC and the second at 0853 UTC. The other active regions on the
disk were quiet and stable. A new region emerged at S08W28 and was
assigned as Region 9453.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low during the next three days. There is a slight
chance, however, for an isolated M-class event from Region 9445.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. Enhanced solar wind velocity, and periods
of sustained southward solar wind magnetic field orientation led to
an increase in geomagnetic activity. The plasma and field parameters
appear to be consistent with the passage of an interplanetary
transient. Minor storm periods were observed from 0000-0600 UTC, and
active conditions dominated most of the remainder of the day. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/1915 UTC ended at
08/1935 UTC. The peak of the event was 30 pfu at 08/0755 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes attained high levels briefly
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active during the next 12-24
hours as the current disturbance is likely to persist. Predominantly
unsettled levels are expected to prevail during the second and third
days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Maykuni 12 May
| Klass M | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 09 May 129 Prognoositud 10 May-12 May 125/120/115 90 päeva keskmine 09 May 168
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 May 016/014 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 09 May 028/035 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 May kuni 12 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
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