Vaata esmaspäev, 16 aprill 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Apr 16 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 106 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 16 Apr 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 15-2100Z kuni 16-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An optically uncorrelated
M1 event occurred at 16/0622 UTC. New Region 9430 (S16W33) was
numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 15-2100Z kuni 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10
MeV and greater than 100 MeV proton events that started yesterday
are still in progress. Peak flux for the greater than 10 MeV
protons was 951 pfu at 15/1920 UTC and the peak flux for the greater
than 100 MeV was 146 pfu at 15/1525 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels and remained
above threshold through the period. The polar cap absorption (PCA)
event that started yesterday is still in progress.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for April 17. Active to minor
storm conditions are expected for April 18 as a result of the X14/2b
flare on April 15, and possible effects from a well positioned
coronal hole. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to return
on April 19. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to
continue for most of the period, and the greater than 100 MeV proton
event is expected to go below threshold sometime on April 17.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 17 Aprkuni 19 Apr
| Klass M | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Klass X | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 99% | 50% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 16 Apr 123 Prognoositud 17 Apr-19 Apr 130/140/150 90 päeva keskmine 16 Apr 165
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 15 Apr 009/013 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 16 Apr 010/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 015/020-020/035-015/030
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 17 Apr kuni 19 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 50% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 60% | 50% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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