Vaata laupäev, 14 aprill 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Apr 14 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 104 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 14 Apr 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9415 (S22W72)
produced an M1/SF event during 14/1715-1828 UTC. Peak x-ray flux
occurred at 14/1811 UTC, after an extended and variable rise in flux
levels. Also observed were an associated Type-II sweep, 150 sfu
tenflare, eruptive prominence and bright surging on the limb.
Imagery from SOHO/LASCO indicated a subsequent CME, however not
appearing earth-directed. Region 9418 (N26W59) also produced a
subfaint flare during the event, and now exhibits some increase in
areal coverage and magnetic complexity. Two new regions were
numbered today: 9428 (N14W39) and 9429 (N09E62).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9415 and 9418 remain potential sources of
isolated major flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels, primarily
due to lingering effects of the geomagnetic storm that commenced on
13 April. Greater-than-2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels at 1415 UTC, and remained above threshold
through the end of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase, with major storm levels possible during the
next 24 hours, due to an expected shock arrival from CME activity
observed on 12 April. Storm activity is expected to wane during the
following two days, with quiet to unsettled levels expected by the
end of the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 15 Aprkuni 17 Apr
| Klass M | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Klass X | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 14 Apr 139 Prognoositud 15 Apr-17 Apr 140/145/150 90 päeva keskmine 14 Apr 166
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 13 Apr 031/036 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 14 Apr 020/020 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 030/040-020/030-010/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 15 Apr kuni 17 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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