Vaata reede, 13 aprill 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Apr 13 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 103 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 Apr 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 9415 (S22W59)
declined in size and number of spots during the period. This region
still retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and is still
capable of producing M and X-class events. Region 9418 (N26W46)
developed into a more magnetically complex beta-gamma configuration,
however it produced very little activity today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9415 is still capable of producing another major
flare before it rotates over the western limb.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. A coronal
mass ejection (CME), from an M2 flare on 11 April, impacted earth at
13/0735 UTC. A sudden impact of 19 nT was detected at the Boulder
USGS magnetometer. The resulting disturbance caused major and severe
geomagnetic storm conditions from 13/1900-2100 UTC, and minor to
major storm conditions from 13/1200-1500 UTC. Conditions subsided to
active levels for the remainder of the period. The greater than 10
MeV proton event ended at 13/1800 UTC. The polar cap absorption
event (PCA) ended during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to minor storming for the first two days of
the period. These conditions will be the result of another impact at
earth of a CME. This CME originated from an X2 event on 12 April.
The expected arrival time is mid to late 14 April and at onset could
cause major storm levels, with brief severe storm levels at high
latitudes possible. Conditions should subside to quiet to active
levels on the third day.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Aprkuni 16 Apr
| Klass M | 80% | 70% | 60% |
| Klass X | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Prooton | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 Apr 137 Prognoositud 14 Apr-16 Apr 135/130/140 90 päeva keskmine 13 Apr 166
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 Apr 029/038 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 13 Apr 025/035 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 050/055-025/030-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 Apr kuni 16 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 30% | 10% | 06% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 40% | 20% | 12% |
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