Vaata pühapäev, 8 aprill 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Apr 08 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 098 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 08 Apr 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
9415 (S21E05) produced no flares during the period, but remained
large and complex with a persistent magnetic delta structure within
its lead sunspot. The remaining regions were simply structured and
stable, including newly numbered Regions 9423 (N21E03) and 9424
(S16E34).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9415 may produce a major flare
during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Quiet to unsettled levels occurred through 08/1030 UTC. A
CME-related shock front reached the ACE spacecraft at 08/1034 UTC
followed by a sudden impulse (SI) at 08/1101 UTC (58 nT, as measured
by the Boulder magnetometer). Field activity increased to active to
major storm levels following the SI. The CME source was the X5 flare
of 06 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained enhanced, but slowly decreased through the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Active to major geomagnetic
storm conditions are expected during the first day as CME effects
continue. Unsettled conditions are expected during the remainder of
the period. There will be a chance for a proton flare from Region
9415 during the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 09 Aprkuni 11 Apr
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Prooton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 08 Apr 169 Prognoositud 09 Apr-11 Apr 165/165/160 90 päeva keskmine 08 Apr 167
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 07 Apr 017/016 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 08 Apr 030/040 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 025/030-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 09 Apr kuni 11 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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