Vaata laupäev, 7 aprill 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Apr 07 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 097 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Apr 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. A single
C-class X-ray flare occurred. Region 9415 (S21E21) remained the
dominant region on the disk with a minor increase in area and spots.
It remained magnetically complex with a strong delta configuration
within its leader spots. Minor growth was reported in Region 9417
(S08E01), but the region remained a simply-structured bipole. New
Regions 9421 (S15W42) and 9422 (S13E78) were numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9415 may produce a major flare
during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to minor storm
levels. A shock passed the ACE spacecraft at about 07/1700 UTC,
presumably from the long-duration M5 X-ray flare and halo-CME event
observed on 05 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux gradually
declined, but remained enhanced.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels during the first
two days due to an expected CME passage associated with the X5 flare
of 06 April. The CME is expected to reach Earth around midday
tomorrow. Quiet to active levels are expected on the final day.
There will be a chance for a proton flare from Region 9415 during
the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Aprkuni 10 Apr
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Prooton | 60% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 07 Apr 180 Prognoositud 08 Apr-10 Apr 175/175/170 90 päeva keskmine 07 Apr 167
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Apr 011/012 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 07 Apr 025/025 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 025/030-025/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Apr kuni 10 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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