Vaata kolmapäev, 28 märts 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Mar 28 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 087 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 28 Mar 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9393 (N13E00) once
again produced the most activity with four M-class events during the
period. The first was an M1/Sf at 28/0158Z, the second was an M1/Sn
at 28/0947Z, the third was an M4/Sf at 28/1240Z and the fourth was
an M1/1f at 28/1909Z. Regions 9403 (S13E36) and 9397 (S09E19)
produced upper C-class level events. Region 9393 continued growing
and currently covers an area of over 2200 millionths in white light.
The region is also maintaining a very complex beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. Four new regions were numbered today,
Region 9405 (S13W20), Region 9406 (N25E67), 9407 (N11E64), and 9408
(S08E38).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9393 has the best potential to produce a
major flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm. Minor to major storm
conditions were observed from 28/0900Z to 28/1500Z. An
earth-directed full halo CME was seen in LASCO/SOHO imagery. The
halo occurred at approximately 28/1300Z and was associated with the
M4/Sf event in Region 9393.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with possible
isolated active conditions on the first day. Conditions are
expected to increase during the middle of the period reaching minor
to major storm levels due to a CME passage. Conditions are expected
to decrease towards the end of the period to unsettled to active
levels. There is the possiblilty for a proton event if Region 9393
produces a major flare event.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 29 Markuni 31 Mar
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Prooton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 28 Mar 274 Prognoositud 29 Mar-31 Mar 270/265/255 90 päeva keskmine 28 Mar 162
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 27 Mar 016/018 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 28 Mar 024/030 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 014/015-030/030-020/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 29 Mar kuni 31 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 40% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 45% | 40% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 25% | 20% |
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