Vaata teisipäev, 6 märts 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Mar 06 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 065 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 Mar 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z Solar activity has been low. The largest event of the
day was an optically uncorrelated C6 flare at 06/1013 UTC.
SOHO/LASCO data suggest an association with the most energetic phase
of a CME observed off the west limb, though not appearing
earth-directed. Several lesser C-class events occurred throughout
the day, with three observed from Region 9368 (N25W08), which
underwent some growth in spot count and areal coverage, but without
significant change in magnetic complexity. Region 9371 (N20W64)
exhibited similar growth, but produced only two subfaint optical
flares without notable x-ray enhancements. Region 9370 showed some
increase in size and complexity, but has remained quiet so far,
along with the other numbered regions on the disk.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days, though a chance for
isolated moderate (weak M-class) activity exists principally for
Region 9368.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains somewhat elevated, but recent effects from a coronal hole
high speed stream appear to have waned over the course of the day.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active conditions
possible for the next 24 hours, until coronal hole effects have
completely subsided. Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected thereafter for the remainder of the forecast period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 Markuni 09 Mar
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 06 Mar 158 Prognoositud 07 Mar-09 Mar 162/165/165 90 päeva keskmine 06 Mar 162
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 05 Mar 019/018 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 06 Mar 008/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 008/008-007/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 Mar kuni 09 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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