Vaata laupäev, 3 märts 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Mar 03 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 062 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 03 Mar 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Occasional
B-class subflares occurred, most of which were produced by newly
numbered Region 9369 (N18W49). Region 9366 (S25E25) grew at a
moderate pace and showed some polarity mixing within the
intermediate portion of the group, but produced no flares. No
significant changes were noted in the remaining regions. New Region
9370 (N09E51) was also numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Activity is expected to be at low
levels. Region 9366 could produce an isolated M-class flare, if it
continues to develop.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during
the first half of the period. Activity increased to unsettled to
minor storm levels at approximately 03/1100 UTC following a CME
passage at the ACE spacecraft at 03/1040 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04 March as CME
effects continue. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet
to unsettled levels during the remaining two days with a slight
chance for isolated active periods due to weak coronal hole effects.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may
reach high levels during the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 04 Markuni 06 Mar
| Klass M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 03 Mar 140 Prognoositud 04 Mar-06 Mar 140/135/135 90 päeva keskmine 03 Mar 162
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 02 Mar 006/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 03 Mar 020/018 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 015/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 04 Mar kuni 06 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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