Vaata esmaspäev, 29 jaanuar 2001 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Jan 29 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 029 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 29 Jan 2001

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Newly numbered Region 9329 (S10E50) produced the only notable activity of the day, a C5/Sf event at 29/1540 UTC. Lesser, uncorrelated C-class activity also occurred throughout the period. Region 9321 (S03W57) remains the largest region on the disk, though somewhat reduced in white light area since yesterday, currently in an Eai Beta configuration. Other active regions are little changed from yesterday.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with a chance of isolated moderate-level activity possible from Region 9321, or Region 9313 (S04W79) as it rotates behind the west limb.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. An isolated period of minor storming was observed at Boulder during 29/0000-0300 UTC, followed by a single active period thereafter. The greater-than-10 MeV proton event which began last period has persisted throughout the day, reaching a maximum flux value of 49 pfu at 29/0655 UTC. An associated polar cap absorption event was reported for the period of 29/0649-1600 UTC, with maximum absorption of 1.9 decibles on the Thule 30Mhz riometer. The proton event remains in progress at the end of period, with a value of about 12 pfu.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly quiet to active levels during the first day. Shock arrival from the CME activity of 28 January is expected to arrive on mid-to-late day one, with isolated minor storming possible through day two. Activity is expected to taper off to mainly unsettled levels by day three. The proton event currently in progress is expected to end during day one.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 30 Jankuni 01 Feb
Klass M45%40%35%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton25%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       29 Jan 165
  Prognoositud   30 Jan-01 Feb  160/160/155
  90 päeva keskmine        29 Jan 173
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 28 Jan  006/006
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 29 Jan  013/012
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  015/015-020/018-012/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 30 Jan kuni 01 Feb
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%40%30%
Väike torm15%20%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%40%30%
Väike torm15%20%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%

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